EXTRANS GLOBAL - Air Freight News - Week 39 2025

1. Air Cargo General

1) When is the Year-End Peak Season for the Air Cargo Market?

√ Uncertain Demand on Asia-North America Routes; Optimistic Outlook for Europe-Bound Shipments; Peak Season for Sea & Air Cargo May Extend into Early Next Year

The 2025 year-end peak season is highly likely to be less robust than in previous years, with concerns over demand contraction being particularly prominent on Asia-North America routes. For Asia-Europe routes, steady demand is expected driven by events like Black Friday and the Christmas season, while some shipment demand ahead of the Lunar New Year in January next year is also projected to remain.

Key Reasons?

The outcome of China-U.S. tariff negotiations has been delayed until November, and policy uncertainty continues to weigh on the market.
Due to tariff risks, importers are focusing on inventory utilization and cost control rather than expanding new cargo volumes. As a result, the traditional peak-season demand growth may be limited.
If the tariff negotiations are concluded in early November, there could be a short-term surge in urgent air cargo demand.

Deepening Differentiation by Route & Cargo Type

Demand expectations for cross-border e-commerce and general cargo on North America routes are weakening, while demand for cross-border e-commerce, transshipment, and final-destination cargo on routes to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe remains relatively strong.
Overall, the global supply chain has entered a phase of structural transformation, characterized by widening disparities in demand across different routes.

Airlines, freight forwarders, and shippers need to develop diverse transportation routes and formulate strategic responses to address medium- to long-term risks.

2) T'way Air Launches Interline Cooperation with Italy's ITA Airways

T'way Air announced on the 19th that it has recently signed an interline agreement with Italy's national airline, ITA Airways, and launched joint operations.

Through this agreement, passengers can book flights operated by both airlines under a single ticket, which is expected to significantly enhance the convenience of intercity travel for European passengers. T'way Air's Incheon-Rome route is connected to ITA Airways' domestic and international routes: after arriving in Rome, passengers can take ITA Airways to conveniently travel to 14 major cities in Italy, including Milan, Florence, Venice, and Naples, as well as to key European cities such as Amsterdam, Barcelona, London, Nice, Munich, and Athens via ITA Airways' international routes.

In addition, passengers taking T'way Air's Incheon-Paris and Incheon-Frankfurt routes can also transfer directly from Paris or Frankfurt to Milan via ITA Airways' international routes, further expanding the options for intercity travel within Europe. Interline tickets can be booked through travel agencies.

Meanwhile, T'way Air has introduced Germany's Deutsche Bahn (DB) "Rail & Fly" service to strengthen the connection between air and rail transportation. It is also expanding its global network by seeking transshipment demand to Oceania and North America through interline cooperation with Virgin Australia (Australia) and Air Premia.

3) 『DHL Report』: Global Air Cargo Market

√ Cross-Border E-Commerce and Geopolitical Risks Drive Supply-Demand Dynamics; Freight Rate Volatility Expected to Persist Until Year-End

Global air cargo demand increased by 3.5% year-on-year, continuing a moderate recovery trend. The single-month growth rate in July reached 6%, the highest since April; however, supply shortages and market imbalances have also widened.

Demand Side:

Asia-Europe routes saw strong growth (7.2%) driven by cross-border e-commerce and exports of technology products from Southeast Asia and China.
Europe’s demand rose by 3.7%, boosted by shipments of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.
North America’s demand fell by 5% year-on-year due to the U.S. revocation of de minimis rules and general tariff hikes.

Supply Side (based on August data):

Global air cargo supply decreased by 3% year-on-year, with freighter operations falling for 4 consecutive months. In contrast, belly cargo supply on passenger aircraft increased by 5%.

Freight Rates on Major Routes:

Freight rates on U.S.-bound routes stood at $4.89 per kg, down 3% week-on-week but still at a high level.
Freight rates on Japan-Europe routes dropped by 10%.
Cargo volumes originating from South Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia remained strong.

Geopolitical & Policy Uncertainty and Freight Rate Outlook

Geopolitical and policy variables such as new China-U.S. tariffs, the war in Ukraine, and India’s crude oil controls are expected to persist beyond the third quarter.
Amid growing uncertainty, "Just-in-Case" inventory strategies and supply chain diversification efforts will be strengthened, leading to concentrated short-term freight rate volatility.

Demand Outlook

By August, the global air cargo market had shown clear signs of strong demand, shrinking supply, and significant imbalances.
Going forward, high freight rates and volatile market conditions are expected to persist until geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties ease.

4) Eastar Jet Completes Introduction of 3 B737-8 Aircraft – Accelerating Fleet Modernization

Eastar Jet introduced its B737-8 aircraft (Registration No. 18) at Gimpo International Airport on the same day. Earlier, on the 16th, it had simultaneously introduced two other aircraft of the same model (Registration Nos. 16 and 17).

The airline plans to further introduce one more B737-8 (Registration No. 19) in October and another (Registration No. 20) in December, bringing its total fleet size to 20 aircraft by the end of the year.

The 5 aircraft (Registration Nos. 16-20) introduced this year are all new 189-seat B737-8 models, manufactured by Boeing and delivered to Eastar Jet for the first time.

Once the 20th aircraft is introduced, the proportion of new B737-8 models in Eastar Jet’s fleet will rise to 50%, while the average age of its aircraft will drop to approximately 7 years.

In addition, the B737-8 is an eco-friendly aircraft with approximately 20% improvements in fuel efficiency and carbon emissions compared to older models. Eastar Jet stated that it aims to reduce costs and enhance operational stability through gradual fleet modernization.

An Eastar Jet official said, "The aircraft introduced this month will be used to expand our route network, such as deploying them on routes scheduled to be transferred following the launch of the merged Korean Air-Asiana Airlines."

5) Airlines Movement

Hawaiian Airlines (HA): Launched 5 weekly passenger flights on the ICN-SEA route starting September 13 (aircraft model: B789; payload: 11 tons).
Air Canada (KJ) & All Nippon Airways (NH): Started 3 weekly code-sharing flights on the ICN-NRT cargo route starting September 15 (aircraft models: 747F, 767F).
UPS (5X): Increased frequency of the SZX-SYD cargo route to 5 weekly flights (aircraft model: B763).

Share this article :

top