EXTRANS GLOBAL - Air Freight News - Week 02 2026

Key Air Cargo Market Trends

1) Northeast Asia to North America Routes Still in Peak Season

The "aftershock" of the peak season that began at the end of last year is continuing into the start of the new year. According to Dimerco's (Taiwan) January analysis of the Northeast Asia air-sea market, the shortage of space on Asia-to-US routes remains severe through early January.

This is attributed to the spillover effect from the year-end peak season and the surge in air cargo demand for exhibition materials ahead of the CES (Consumer Electronics Show) in Las Vegas, USA, from January 6th to 9th. Consequently, reservations are required at least one week in advance to secure stable space on routes to the Americas.

Routes from Incheon (ICN) to Singapore (SIN), Penang (PEN), Kuala Lumpur (KUL), and Taipei (TPE) are also "space out" (fully booked) due to increased demand for semiconductor equipment.

As a result, BSA (Blocked Space Agreement) contract prices negotiated between forwarders and airlines are reportedly 10-20% higher than last year.

Furthermore, major transshipment hubs for cargo originating from China—including Incheon, as well as Hong Kong (HKG), Taipei (TPE), Singapore (SIN), and Narita (NRT)—are also experiencing extremely tight (taut) supply conditions.

Additionally, China Cargo Airlines (CK) moved the operation of its air cargo terminal in Bangkok (BKK) to the Thai Airways (TG) terminal starting in January. This move is highly likely to expand the hub function for air cargo from China to Southeast Asia.

In Taiwan, air cargo demand (as of November last year) surged by 56% year-on-year. With the expansion of demand for US-bound cargo, securing space on transpacific routes via "two-point" (transshipment) sectors has also become difficult.

2) Airline Industry Revenue Expected to Rise 4.5% This Year

Global airline revenue is estimated to have reached $1.008 trillion (approx. 145.7 trillion KRW) last year, a 4.1% increase from the previous year, marking the first time the industry has surpassed the $1 trillion mark. IATA expects revenue to grow by an additional 4.5% this year to reach $1.053 trillion.

The continued strong performance is driven by rising global passenger demand; IATA forecasts a 4.9% year-on-year increase in global air passenger demand for this year.

Particularly strong growth of 7.3% is expected in the Asia-Pacific region. Global air cargo volumes are projected to rise 2.4% year-on-year, driven by increased shipments of semiconductor components due to expanding e-commerce and AI investments. This optimism is underpinned by expectations that the chronic aircraft supply shortage since COVID-19 will be somewhat alleviated.

Boeing expects to deliver about 700 aircraft this year, a 23% increase from the previous year (approx. 570 units). Airbus also forecasts delivering around 900 aircraft, a 14% increase from last year (approx. 790 units). This provides much-needed relief for airlines that were unable to expand routes due to a lack of aircraft.

The domestic aviation industry is also growing. From January to November last year, passenger traffic on Korean domestic and international routes reached 113.57 million, a 3.7% increase year-on-year (109.52 million). However, profitability remains a concern due to high exchange rates and unstable international conditions. Airlines pay for fuel, insurance, and maintenance in foreign currency, making cost volatility from exchange rates greater than in other industries.

The burden is particularly heavy for LCCs with a low proportion of owned aircraft and high lease ratios. This explains why Korean Air (376.3 billion KRW) was the only airline to post an operating profit in Q3 last year.

The industry expects the performance gap between airlines to widen further this year. Full-service carriers (FSCs) like Korean Air can expand profitability based on long-haul business/transfer demand and cargo demand, whereas short-haul-focused LCCs face worsening profitability due to intensifying competition. For these reasons, Jeju Air and Parata Air are considering expanding into long-haul routes.

Ahead of the integration of Korean Air and Asiana Airlines, route redistribution is also in full swing. Three LCC subsidiaries (Jin Air, Air Busan, Air Seoul) are also scheduled for integration. A Korean Air official stated, "During the integration with Asiana Airlines, we plan to adjust overlapping routes and schedules to expand customer choices."

3) T'way Air Selected for Incheon~Jakarta Route After 4-Way Bidding

New airlines are beginning operations on international and domestic routes where monopoly concerns were raised due to the corporate merger of Korean Air and Asiana Airlines.

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and the Fair Trade Commission announced substitute airlines for a total of 7 routes on the 6th, including 5 international routes (Incheon~Jakarta, Incheon~Seattle, Incheon~Honolulu) and 2 domestic round-trip routes (Gimpo~Jeju).

Among the international routes, the Incheon~Jakarta route, which saw competition from 4 airlines, was awarded to T'way Air, which received the highest score in the evaluation. This route is considered a "lucrative route" due to steady year-round demand from corporate business trips and expatriate movements, as well as high tourism demand.

The Incheon~Seattle and Incheon~Honolulu routes were selected with single applications from Alaska Airlines and Air Premia, respectively.

Two routes, Incheon~New York (Air Premia · United Airlines) and Incheon~London (Virgin Atlantic), are undergoing transfer procedures following antitrust restrictions from overseas competition authorities.

The selected airlines will be allocated airport slots and traffic rights and are scheduled to enter service sequentially as early as the first half of this year. A "slot" refers to the takeoff or landing time allocated to an airline, representing the right to use airport facilities during that period.

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport plans to fully launch transfer procedures for the remaining routes where substitute airlines have not yet been selected.

Previously, slot and traffic rights transfers have been completed for 6 routes, including Incheon~Los Angeles, Incheon~San Francisco, Incheon~Barcelona, Incheon~Paris, and Incheon~Rome.

4) Global Forwarder Revenue Rankings Shift Drastically - DSV Claims Top Spot

As the global logistics market reorganizes rapidly, there have been distinct changes in the rankings of major global freight forwarders based on revenue.

LOGÍSTICA & SUPPLY CHAIN published the rankings based on official financial data (2023~2024 audit reports).

The world's number one forwarder by revenue is DSV. With the acquisition of DB Schenker in 2025, its annual revenue reached $43.5 billion, placing it at the top.

Second place is DHL Supply Chain & Global Forwarding with $33.87 billion in revenue, boasting a balanced business portfolio covering Contract Logistics and Forwarding.

Third place is Kuehne+Nagel with $31.66 billion, maintaining a stable revenue structure in sea, air, and road transport as well as high-value logistics solutions.

They are followed by C.H. Robinson ($16.75 billion) and Nippon Express ($15.93 billion) in 4th and 5th places, respectively.

Notably, CEVA Logistics jumped to 6th place with $18.7 billion in revenue by integrating Bolloré Logistics. This is cited as a representative case of scale and capability expansion through Post-Merger Integration rather than organic growth.

Sinotrans, China's largest state-owned forwarder, ranked 7th with $14.34 billion. While it is among the world's largest in terms of cargo volume, its revenue ranking is relatively low. This indicates that in the forwarding market, margin structure and service portfolio diversification have a greater impact on revenue competitiveness than cargo volume (TEU/tons).

The biggest feature of this ranking is that moving away from a simple "transport agency" model, M&A strategy, IT/digital capabilities, and industry-specific customized logistics services have emerged as core factors determining corporate value and revenue. These figures are based on official corporate audit reports rather than estimates or social media data, enhancing credibility.

The changing rankings suggest the market is reorganizing around comprehensive logistics enterprises covering air cargo, sea freight, and contract logistics.

In particular, the acceleration of M&A among large forwarders is likely to impact future rate negotiation power, securing air and sea routes, and competition in digital platforms.

5) Airlines Movement

Emirates (EK): Plans to introduce an additional 10 B777F freighters within this year.
- Note: EK currently operates 11 B777Fs + 5 leased B747Fs.
Hong Kong Air Cargo (RH): Newly introduced A330-200PF freighters, with plans to operate a total fleet of 6 freighters.
- Note: The PF model is a converted freighter (Conversion Freighter) modified from a passenger aircraft.

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