EXTRANS GLOBAL - Air Freight News - Week 01 2026

Key Air Cargo Market Trends

1) Air Cargo Rates Edge Down Slightly at Year-End

Global air cargo rates are showing a mild downward trend ahead of the year-end holiday season. According to the latest data from the TAC Index, a specialized air cargo rate indicator provider, the global air cargo Baltic Index fell 3.3% week-on-week as of December 22.

Year-on-year, the index recorded a 0.6% decline, but this level is not significantly different from the strong peak season seen at the end of 2024.

Industry analysis suggests this reflects both resilient market demand and the ongoing constraints on air cargo capacity supply in the market.

Specifically, air cargo rates from China dropped again week-on-week on both Europe and the U.S. routes. Meanwhile, the BAI spot rates from Hong Kong have been on a gradual downward trend throughout the week as the peak season peak passes. Rates from Shanghai, after a recent upward trend, entered a correction phase with a 8.6% week-on-week drop, but still maintained a 9.3% year-on-year increase.

Industry insiders note that short-term rate adjustments are inevitable as the year-end peak season draws to a close. However, the strong performance seen on U.S.-Europe routes and some Asia-Americas routes indicates that structural demand in the air cargo market is likely to persist into early 2026. Especially against the backdrop of constrained belly capacity recovery, geopolitical variables and e-commerce cargo volumes are identified as the core factors that will dictate future rate volatility.

2) Air Premia Faces Imminent Suspension Risk Amid Capital Erosion

Attention is focused on whether Chairman Kim Jeong-gyu of Tirebank can resolve Air Premia’s capital erosion crisis and avoid business suspension by improving the airline’s financial structure by September next year, while also navigating potential legal risks.

In September last year, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport issued a corrective order to Air Premia, requiring it to reduce its capital erosion rate to below 50% within two years. Failure to comply will result in a 6-month business suspension, or in severe cases, revocation of its air transport license. Based on last year’s data, the airline’s capital erosion rate exceeded 80%.

On the performance front, Air Premia has posted growth through an aggressive route expansion strategy: its flight volume reached 3,662 services in January-November this year, a 44.2% increase compared to 2,540 services in the same period last year.

However, there are concerns that the airline may record negative growth this year, due to the Trump administration’s visa policies that have reduced the number of dispatched workers and international students in the U.S. Therefore, the industry expects the airline may slip into losses due to weak profitability.

The most pressing issue, however, is improving its financial structure. The airline is currently in a state of partial capital erosion, with a record-high capital erosion rate of 82.1% in 2023. It was against this backdrop that the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport issued the order last September, mandating the rate be cut to below 50% by September 2026.

Market speculation suggests Chairman Kim will launch a paid-in capital increase. Calculations show that approximately 46.2 billion won in capital injection is needed to bring the capital erosion rate below 50%, meaning the scale of the paid-in capital increase is expected to exceed 50 billion won.

However, sources indicate that Chairman Kim is reluctant to fund the capital increase with his own personal assets. In September this year, he invested 120 billion won to acquire a 22% stake held by Daemyung Sono Group and JC Partners, and is reportedly cautious about making additional capital contributions.

3) Korean Air Updates KE-04 to Align with IATA DGR 67th Edition – Expands Mandatory SoC Requirements for Batteries and Electric Vehicles

Korean Air will further revise its proprietary regulations (KE Variation-04) starting January 1, 2026, to reflect the revised content of the IATA Dangerous Goods Regulations (DGR) 67th Edition.

The core of this revision is to expand the scope of goods subject to mandatory restrictions on State of Charge (SoC) or nominal capacity for lithium-ion batteries, sodium-ion batteries and battery-powered vehicles, requiring forwarders and global shippers to make advance preparations.

【Key Revisions to KE-04 Following IATA DGR 67th Edition】

According to Korean Air’s announcement, after the release of the IATA DGR 67th Edition, the airline will further revise KE Variation-04 among its proprietary regulations. Previously, the SoC ≤ 30% restriction applied only to certain battery types; this revision expands the scope to include lithium-ion batteries packed with equipment and battery-powered vehicles.

Under the revised regulations, shippers of dangerous goods must clearly state the SoC or nominal capacity in the “Additional Handling Information” section of the Shipper’s Declaration. Failure to comply may result in restricted transportation.

Specifically:

UN 3480 (Lithium-ion batteries, PI 965) and UN 3551 (Sodium-ion batteries, PI 976) will maintain the existing requirement of SoC ≤ 30% of rated capacity.
Newly added category: UN 3481 (Lithium-ion batteries packed with equipment, PI 966 Section I) is included in the restricted scope.

【Effective January 1, 2026, Based on Departure Location】

The revised KE Variation-04 will take effect on January 1, 2026, based on the departure location principle.

Korean Air stated that these changes will be incorporated into the upcoming IATA Supplement 2 or the IATA DGR 68th Edition. Therefore, forwarders and shippers must take the following preparatory measures from the second half of 2025 during the shipment preparation phase: battery SoC management, verification of document filling procedures, and confirmation of compliance with the departure location principle.

4) EU: €3 Tariff Per E-commerce Parcel Under €150 Starting July Next Year

The European Union (EU) has finalized a decision to impose a €3 tariff per e-commerce parcel valued below €150, effective July 2026.

The European Commission recently reached a consensus with member states that an “urgent transitional solution” is needed to address the surging volume of imported e-commerce parcels. This tariff measure is a temporary arrangement that will remain in place until the “EU Customs Data Hub” – the core infrastructure of the EU’s customs reform – is established in 2028.

Currently, the EU Council and the European Commission are advancing two parallel tasks to implement this temporary tariff system: revising relevant legislation and building an IT system to ensure smooth operation.

Once the EU Customs Data Hub is officially launched, new customs data related to e-commerce will be centrally managed, ensuring full visibility of goods entering and exiting the EU. Subsequently, a permanent tariff system based on this hub will be implemented.

The €3 per parcel tariff applies exclusively to parcels shipped directly from third countries to EU consumers.

This is a separate system from the currently discussed “EU e-commerce handling fee”: the tariff is designed to eliminate the price competitive advantage long enjoyed by e-commerce businesses, while the handling fee aims to cover the administrative costs incurred by customs authorities in managing and supervising the surging parcel volumes.

5) Airlines Movement

Aeroflot Group (SU): Its subsidiary Aeroflot has added 2 Boeing 744 ERF freighters and 2 Boeing 737-800 BCF freighters; its LCC subsidiary Pobeda has added 4 Boeing 737-800 passenger aircraft. The group’s total fleet size has increased to 360 aircraft.
Nippon Cargo Airlines (NCA) & Mexico’s MAS: Signed a Block Space Agreement (BSA) for the winter season covering North America and trans-Pacific routes. The two carriers will connect their capacity to form the NRT-LAX-GDL/MEX route network.

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