EXTRANS GLOBAL - Air Freight News - Week 50 2025

Air Cargo General

1) The air freight peak season is not over yet!

Air freight rates, which had slightly paused, rebounded. As of December 1, the Baltic Air Freight Index (BA) rose 0.8% week-on-week, but is still down 3.3% year-on-year.
The positive signal is that the main driver of the uptrend is Far East Asia. Strong demand is emerging especially on key routes from China to North America and Europe.
Accordingly, rates from Hong Kong (HKG) rose 1.8% week-on-week, and rates from Shanghai (PVG) rose 2.7%.
Thanks to Chinese demand, departures from Incheon (ICN) and Bangkok (BKK) are also strong, mainly on U.S. routes. However, demand on Europe routes is slightly declining.
In contrast, Taiwan-origin cargo shows sluggish demand to the U.S., while demand to Europe is increasing.
Average rates in November were also strong. Based on Hong Kong, North America rates rose 8.4% month-on-month and Europe rates rose 8.9% — confirming the peak-season climax.
HKG–North America average rate in November was US$6.18/kg (up 8.4% from US$5.70/kg in October). However, the 10-year average increase between October and November is 13%, so this year’s rise fell short of historical levels.
HKG–Europe average rate reached US$5.00/kg, up from US$4.59/kg in October, but the increase was modest compared with the 10-year average of 10.8%.

2) Asia-Pacific market in December: strong peak driven by e-commerce and high-tech demand (Dimerco report)

According to global air cargo reports, demand to the Americas is expected to continue through December.
From the second week of November, U.S.-bound e-commerce volumes surged, creating a strong peak that will last into December. E-commerce cargo from China, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia is concentrating in major transshipment hubs such as TPE, HKG, ICN, NRT, and SIN, prompting airlines to tighten space control.

● Korea (ICN): High-tech shipments expanding → booking at least 1 week in advance to the U.S. has become “practically mandatory” Severe capacity shortage on almost all routes from Incheon to the Americas and Asia. High-tech exports (mainly semiconductor equipment and parts) are increasing, putting continued pressure on capacity. Booking at least one week in advance is now essentially required for U.S.-bound cargo. Year-end concentration is also keeping major Asian routes (Singapore, Penang, Kuala Lumpur, Taipei, etc.) very tight.

● Taiwan (TPE): Rates to U.S. & Europe continue rising — Singapore route “the tightest” Strong demand to the U.S. and Europe will keep rates rising throughout December. Singapore (SIN) is cited as the route with the most severe space shortage. Combined with rising fuel surcharges (FSC), total transport costs have increased significantly.

● China (East/North/South): Rates to U.S. & Europe surged 20–30% → Southeast Asia routes facing supply gaps Sharp increase in volumes to the U.S. and Europe has pushed rates up 20–30% from the previous month. Airlines are reallocating capacity from short-haul to long-haul routes, causing noticeable supply shortages to Southeast Asia. In North China, space to TPE and SIN is being booked up quickly and U.S.-bound cargo is experiencing ground handling delays. In South China, rates to TPE, SIN, and BKK are expected to rise until mid-month before easing slightly toward year-end.

● Hong Kong (HKG): Explosive U.S.-bound demand → charter flights added but still insufficient Explosive U.S. demand has caused persistent space shortages on all major routes. Airlines are adding Air Hong Kong charter capacity, but industry sources say it is still not enough to keep up with demand growth.

3) Will the spread of de minimis abolition increase air freight rate volatility again?

Global ocean and air logistics markets are entering another complex volatile phase. Mixed signals on Maersk’s Red Sea return, potential European port congestion, transport disruptions due to Southeast Asian storms, and the spreading abolition of de minimis regimes in the U.S., EU, and UK are all contributing to the typical year-end peak-season instability in both ocean and air rates.
In the air cargo market, issues such as urgent software updates for 6,000 Airbus A320s and full inspections of FedEx/UPS MD-11 fleets were expected to affect supply, but no serious delays or capacity crises have materialized yet.
However, the spreading abolition of de minimis rules is creating demand uncertainty for the future market. After the U.S. completely abolished its de minimis threshold this summer, the EU has formalized abolition by 2028 (possibly as early as 2026), and the UK plans abolition in 2029. These changes are expected to fundamentally reshape the cross-border e-commerce air transport structure between China/Southeast Asia and the U.S./Europe.

4) TK New Airport master plan confirms “dedicated freighter terminal in Uiseong”

The inclusion of a “Uiseong dedicated freighter terminal” in the civilian airport master plan for TK New Airport has made the restructuring of logistics functions around Uiseong visible.
The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport will announce the master plan in December after deliberation by the Aviation Policy Committee. This decision is evaluated as the first institutional step in clarifying the division of roles between Uiseong and Gunwi.
The plan explicitly assigns cargo functions to Uiseong and belly-cargo functions of passenger aircraft to Gunwi.
This provides institutional backing for the air logistics complex, small/medium aircraft MRO complex, free trade zone, and free economic zone projects that Uiseong County has been pursuing. A related official said, “The industrial strategy we have prepared so far has now been institutionalized.”
Although the overall schedule for TK New Airport may be adjusted depending on next year’s budget and the progress of the military airport relocation, the inclusion of a dedicated freighter terminal is significant in that it preemptively confirms the role Uiseong will play in the new airport economic zone.

5) Airlines Movement

Air China (CA): From 24 Mar 2026, new freighter service PEK–BRU 5× weekly; from 29 Mar 2026, new freighter service CTU–BRU 3× weekly.
T'way Air (TW): Plans to open new routes from Busan to Hanoi (HAN), Chiang Mai (CNX), and Ban Me Thuot (BMX). The Busan–Chiang Mai route will commence on 8 Jan 2026 with 2× weekly flights (Thu & Sun).

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