EXTRANS GLOBAL - Air Freight News - Week 41 2025

1. Air Cargo General

1) Express/Small Parcel Market Projected to Grow by 8% by 2030

The global logistics market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8% by 2029. Notably, the Asia-Pacific region is set to lead the overall upward trend with a CAGR of 5.9%, while the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) market is also anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 4.8%.

According to recent projections from the UK’s Transport Intelligence (Ti), the contract logistics segment of the overall logistics market expanded from €246.9 billion to €295.6 billion between 2020 and 2024. The Asia-Pacific contract logistics market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 6.33% by 2029.

Last year, the global freight forwarding market grew by 6.1%, with the Asia-Pacific region accounting for 36.1% of the global freight forwarding market share.

The express and small parcel market is expected to grow by 7.9% by 2030. Based on 2024 data, the global express and small parcel market reached a size of €272.7 billion, marking the fastest growth rate in the past five years.

This year, the global e-commerce logistics market is projected to grow by 15.5% year-on-year. As of last year, North America was the largest market, with a market size of €200.4 billion.

2) “Asia Transshipment Hubs ‘Overloaded’” – Air Cargo Demand from Southeast Asia Overwhelms During Peak Season

In its October market report, Dimerco Express stated that as the Asian air cargo market enters its peak season, major transshipment hubs are facing severe pressure.

Analysis indicates that at the end of September, Super Typhoon Ragasa hit southern China and Hong Kong, leading to flight cancellations and logistics backlogs. This was compounded by the temporary suspension of China-Europe railway routes, resulting in a surge in air cargo demand.

In particular, Dimerco noted: “Southeast Asia is driving export demand. A large volume of AI, semiconductor, and e-commerce cargo originating from Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore is being shipped to the U.S. and Europe, pushing transshipment hubs in Singapore, Taipei, Hong Kong, and Incheon close to saturation.”

It further added: “While this is the traditional peak season for air cargo, this year’s demand surge from Southeast Asia is particularly intense. Cargo related to AI and advanced manufacturing has effectively filled transshipment hubs to near-capacity.”

In response, freight forwarders are advising customers to book shipments at least 1–2 weeks in advance to avoid delays. For urgent cargo, they suggest flexibly adjusting departure points or transshipment hubs as a way to reduce disruptions.

In contrast, the ocean freight market remains weak. Persistent weak demand across major routes has led shipping lines to reduce operations during the Golden Week period in an attempt to stabilize freight rates.

Ship supply currently exceeds demand, and carriers’ operating profit margins have fallen to their lowest level in the past 18 months. As a result, shipping lines are facing pressure to adjust supply and defend freight rates. Container market insiders have warned of a potential increase in blank sailings in the second half of October. They urge shippers to: adopt flexible routing and early booking for Asia-U.S. cargo; and prepare for continued freight rate volatility in the fourth quarter for Asia-Europe cargo.

3) China Boosts Low-Cost Exports to Emerging Markets to Evade China-U.S. Tariffs – On Track for Record Trade Surplus

China is significantly ramping up low-cost exports to avoid high U.S. tariffs, and is projected to record its largest-ever trade surplus (USD 1.2 trillion) this year.

From January to August this year, China’s trade surplus reached USD 785.8 billion, a sharp 28.2% increase compared to the same period last year (USD 612.6 billion).

To bypass U.S. tariffs, China has drastically expanded exports to emerging markets such as India, Africa, and Southeast Asia. This has put relevant countries under pressure to launch anti-dumping investigations (for example, India recently received 50 applications to investigate dumping of goods from China and other countries).

Bloomberg assesses that countries targeted by China’s aggressive export strategy are unlikely to take aggressive countermeasures. It noted: “Countries already embroiled in tariff negotiations with the U.S. are reluctant to engage in a trade war with the world’s second-largest economy (China).”

4) Global Average Air Freight Rate Falls 4% to USD 2.54/kg

As of last September, the global average air freight rate stood at USD 2.54 per kg, 4% lower than the same period last year. This marks the fifth consecutive month (since last May) of a 3–4% year-on-year decline.

Both demand and supply for air cargo increased by 3% year-on-year. In September, air cargo demand (with the 2024 monthly average set at 100) remained relatively strong at 105, while air cargo supply (also with the 2024 monthly average set at 100) similarly stood at 105. Consequently, the average load factor for air cargo was 59%, a 1% year-on-year decrease.

Notably, due to the U.S. ban on manifest clearance for low-value goods under USD 800 per item and the imposition of tariffs, air cargo demand for U.S.-bound routes (centered on e-commerce) has dropped significantly. In contrast, e-commerce-related air cargo demand for Europe-bound routes has increased.

Freight rates on both the Pacific and Atlantic routes fell by 2–3% month-on-month.

By major route:

The freight rate for Southeast Asia-North America routes was USD 4.98 per kg, a 22% year-on-year decrease.
The freight rate for Northeast Asia-North America routes was USD 4.35 per kg, a 10% year-on-year decrease.
The freight rate for Northeast Asia-Europe routes was USD 4.15 per kg, a 9% year-on-year decrease.

Additionally, in the third quarter, the share of short-term air freight contracts (6 months or less) between forwarders and shippers increased year-on-year. Based on new air freight contracts:

Contracts with a term of over 1 year accounted for 2%.
12-month contracts accounted for 44%.
6-month contracts accounted for 23%.
3-month contracts accounted for 20%.

Also, in the third quarter, spot freight contracts (1 month or less) between forwarders and airlines accounted for 48%.

5) Airlines Movement

FedEx (FX): Launched a new weekly cargo route: HAN – ICN – CAN. It plans to support exports, focusing on high-demand sectors such as electronics and textiles originating from Hanoi (HAN).
DHL Express (D0): Operates 6 weekly cargo flights from Hanoi (HAN) via Hong Kong (HKG) (aircraft models: B777, A330).
Asiana Airlines (OZ): Resumed 5 weekly passenger flights on the ICN – FRA route from September 5 to December 31 (aircraft model: A380). It also plans to increase the frequency of passenger flights on the ICN–BKK route from 11 to 14 weekly flights (aircraft models: A321N, A359) from January 15 to March 28, 2026.
Martinair Cargo (MP): Starting October 28, it will operate: 1 weekly cargo flight on the ICN–HKG–AMS route; and 2 weekly non-stop cargo flights on the ICN – AMS route (aircraft model: B744).

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