EXTRANS GLOBAL - Air Freight News - Week 48 2025

Air Cargo General

1) Asia-Origin Rates Rise Again, U.S./Europe Routes Maintain Strength (from WorldACD)

Air cargo rates from the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region continued to climb ahead of the Black Friday and Thanksgiving shopping seasons.

According to WorldACD market data, spot rates for North America and Europe-bound shipments rose again in the second week of November, driving the overall market. Even intra-Asia volumes and rates increased simultaneously.

The average spot rate from the Asia-Pacific region rose 4% week-on-week (WoW) to $4.11 per kg. During the same period, volumes in the region also increased by 1%, reflecting the clear impact of the retail peak season.

Notably:

Asia-to-U.S. spot rates surged 4% WoW to $5.51 per kg. Japan’s volumes rebounded 16% after a one-day public holiday the previous week, with spot rates up 10%. South Korea-origin rates rose 13%, and Vietnam-origin rates increased 8%.
However, since April 2024, Asia-to-U.S. rates have continued to decline year-on-year (YoY) (-11%). Significant drops were recorded across major markets: Japan (-31%), Singapore (-19%), Indonesia (-19%), Vietnam (-17%), South Korea (-10%), and Hong Kong (-8%).

Market experts point out that the relocation of Chinese e-commerce volumes due to stricter U.S. tariffs and de minimis regulations has become entrenched, urging greater focus on Southeast Asia’s export market.

Meanwhile, the diversification of semiconductor supply chains is increasingly likely to bring structural changes to South Korea’s air cargo market. While the exact direction of demand remains uncertain, experts note the need to move beyond the traditional focus on South Korea-to-U.S. shipments.

2) Asia-Pacific → North America Air Cargo Capacity and Weekly Growth Rate

Capacity: Asia-Pacific to North America air cargo capacity (in tonnes) increased by 5% above average, reflecting peak season demand.
Weekly Capacity Change: Maintained modest growth—supply is rising but at a slower pace than the surge in demand.
Regional Dynamics: Strong demand from Vietnam and Thailand has driven the overall increase in Asia-Pacific-to-U.S. capacity.
China-Origin Trends: Chinese air cargo rates have turned bullish, with sustained tightness in direct flight space due to growing e-commerce (especially cross-border and fulfillment) demand.
- Rates to JFK: $7–$7.20 per kg; to LAX: approximately $6.20 per kg (stable).
- According to the Freightos Index: China-to-U.S. rates rose 5%, China-to-EU rates increased 2%.
Drivers: Major Chinese platforms and high-value brands have secured full charter flights, pushing rates higher. Some China-origin demand may be linked to Christmas inventory buildup, a trend expected to become more pronounced post-Black Friday. Current rates are slightly above the historical peak season average.

3) North America-Bound Air Cargo Rates Rise on Black Friday Demand

Trans-Pacific air cargo space has tightened sharply due to U.S. Black Friday demand, with shortages of Asia-origin capacity worsening ahead of the late-November Black Friday and Thanksgiving shopping seasons.

Vietnam-to-U.S. Routes: Supply pressure has peaked due to surging e-commerce volumes and increased high-value IT/semiconductor shipments.
Diversification Trend: Peak season shipments from Vietnam are offsetting declining China-origin volumes, highlighting the "de-China" shift in supply chains.
Rate Surges: Southeast Asia-to-U.S. rates have spiked, driven by strong demand from Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia.
- According to Hong Kong-based Honour Lane Shipping: Southeast Asia-to-U.S. West Coast rates reached $7.50 per kg, and Southeast Asia-to-U.S. East Coast rates climbed to a maximum of $8.50 per kg.
Kuehne+Nagel’s Expansion: The logistics giant operates 14 weekly direct flights between Vietnam and the U.S., focusing on high-tech, electronic, and semiconductor cargo. Southeast Asia is emerging as the fastest-growing U.S.-bound market this year.

4) MD-11 Grounding Likely to Lengthen – Peak Season "Freighter Shortage" Looms

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)’s full grounding of MD-11F freighters, imposed following a UPS MD-11F crash in the U.S. earlier this month, is likely to last longer than expected. Major cargo airlines including UPS, FedEx, and Western Global Airlines (WGA) face potential wide-body freighter shortages during the year-end peak season.

WGA’s Furlough: WGA announced an internal notice stating it will implement large-scale indefinite furloughs starting November 22. This decision comes as additional safety inspections required by the FAA are expected to take significantly longer than initially planned.
WGA’s Inspection Update: After two weeks of negotiations with Boeing, WGA was informed that the noninvasive inspection protocol initially expected to be approved by November 14 is insufficient, necessitating extended grounding.
Contingency Measures: UPS and FedEx—also operators of MD-11Fs—have activated emergency alternative transport networks, including cargo consolidation, delayed maintenance schedules, and aircraft leases from partner airlines.
Market Impact: Amid the peak season, rising rates and longer lead times for international express and high-value cargo are inevitable. The prolonged MD-11 grounding is likely to become a supply uncertainty factor across the Asia-U.S. air cargo market.

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