EXTRANS GLOBAL - Air Freight News - Week 24 2025

Air Cargo General

1) Global air cargo freight rates turn downward for the first time in a year—5% demand growth in May, but market uncertainty persists

• Global air cargo volume increased by 6% YoY in May, but market sentiment remains shaky due to ongoing uncertainty. According to market research firm Xeneta, spot air cargo freight rates have turned downward for the first time in a year.
• Xeneta analyzed, "Despite positive measures like U.S.-China tariff exemptions, it's too late to reverse the weakening air cargo rates. The global spot air cargo rate averaged $2.44/kg in May, down 4% YoY—the first decline since April 2024. The roughly 20% drop in jet fuel prices from a year ago also contributed to the rate decline."
• The slowdown in the air cargo market over the past 5–6 months "reflects a market atmosphere where future trade prospects are unclear," and "even if tariff negotiations conclude, they are more likely to contract rather than promote trade, expected to negatively impact air cargo."
• Accordingly, airlines are reportedly willing to pay a "slight premium" to maintain volume amid this uncertainty.
• "FOMO (fear of missing out), seen in 2023, may reappear," and "if aircraft load factors drop slightly, airlines will enter rate negotiations more quickly and proactively," it was forecast.
• Currently, e-commerce accounts for about 50% of U.S.-China air cargo volume. The rapid pace of trade environment changes has made it difficult for the air cargo industry to respond, noting, "Plans set a few weeks ago become irrelevant again. While trade is taking a hit, air cargo is benefiting relatively. Compared to ocean freight, there's sufficient justification to accept air transport costs for tariff avoidance."
• Meanwhile, as of June 1, spot rates for China-to-U.S. air cargo were $4.31/kg, up 14% from the May 11 low. Rates to Europe ($4.11/kg) continue to decline from pre-U.S. Labor Day highs, keeping medium-term market outlooks cautious.
• Before the implementation of the Diminimis tariff, China Customs saw a 30% YoY increase in low-value and e-commerce goods from China to the U.S. in April—lower than the overall cross-border e-commerce growth rate (45%), indicating some circumvention of Chinese e-commerce flows.

2) Global Air Cargo Market Week 22–23

• Worldwide volume changes:
• Volume remained stable week-on-week (up 6% YoY, led by growth in the Asia-Pacific region).
• Overall demand recovery continued (the Asia-Pacific region contributed most to absolute volume growth).
• Key flows by U.S. and Europe routes:
• China→U.S. spot rates +1% week-on-week, -13% YoY.
• Hong Kong→U.S. spot rates +9% week-on-week, -4% YoY.
• Cargo volume from China/Hong Kong to the U.S. -8% YoY.
• China/Hong Kong→Europe spot rates rose slightly but remained lower YoY.
• Asia-Pacific→North America route: volume +19% / North America→Asia-Pacific route: volume +13%.
• Central/South America→North America route: -23% drop due to ending Father's Day flower demand (post-specific event demand decline is evident).
• China→U.S. route: recovery from recent lows, improved to -5% YoY (recovering from a 14% decline in the 6-week average).
• China→Europe route: exports +11% YoY (but -3% week-on-week as of Week 21).

3) Eastar Jet to review Busan~Almaty route from July—expanding into Central Asian air markets

• At a Kazakhstan tourism briefing held at the Seoul Plaza Hotel on the 4th, the head of Eastar Jet's Commercial Division stated, "This year, new routes are being developed primarily in Kazakhstan." He added, "For the Busan~Almaty route, we are reviewing launching it on July 15—the first domestic route to Almaty, Kazakhstan's largest city, after the Incheon→Almaty route launched in April."
• Eastar Jet becomes the first domestic LCC to operate the Incheon~Almaty route. It is also reported to be reviewing the Busan~Almaty route after securing transport rights, set to launch in July.
• Asiana Airlines operates Incheon-Almaty 2–3 times weekly, while Korean Air serves Kazakhstan via major Central Asian cities like Tashkent and Bishkek. Kazakhstan-based carriers such as Astana Airlines, FlyArystan, and SCAT Airlines provide flights between South Korea and Kazakhstan.
• Almaty tourism packages, which previously cost over 3 million won for domestic departures, have seen significant price reductions due to new routes by carriers including Eastar Jet.
• Astana Airlines' Commercial Director stated, "Astana Airlines operates 3 weekly flights from Incheon and connects to major European routes like London," adding, "We plan to offer domestic consumers various opportunities alongside Kazakhstan tourism."

4) BSA long-term contracts under U.S.-China tensions: airlines and forwarders in 'cautious mode'

• As U.S.-China trade tensions persist, uncertainty in the air cargo market has grown, leading to a clear cautious attitude toward signing long-term transport contracts between airlines and cargo forwarders—with demand for and avoidance of Block Space Agreements (BSA) emerging simultaneously.
• Forwarders focused on China-U.S. cargo routes are reportedly skeptical about long-term BSA contracts with airlines.
• Market experts attribute this to the U.S. government's 90-day 'reciprocal tariff exemption' measure, which has increased policy volatility. Brandon Fried, former head of the Airforwarders Association (AFA), recently said, "After talking with several airlines, customers accept 30-day short-term contracts but reject long-term ones—because no one knows what the White House will do in 90 days."
• Conversely, at the AirCargo Europe event in Munich, Germany, a cargo airline representative stated, "Our customer contract renewal rate was very high, and most long-term contracts were signed under normal conditions," presenting a conflicting view.
• Another cargo airline source said, "Airlines themselves sometimes reject long-term contracts over 6 months," analyzing that this stems from expectations of demand surges and rate hikes in the second half of the year.
• It is noted that current global air cargo market uncertainty affects overall global market sentiment, not just U.S.-China tensions.
• There is a forecast that if this uncertainty is resolved, pent-up demand will rush in, causing a strong market rebound, and airlines may struggle to cope. Experts generally agree it is still a time for wait-and-see, with no choice but to monitor developments.

5) Airlines Movement

• WestJet Cargo adds 3 new Cuba routes:
• After successfully integrating with Sunwing Airlines, WestJet Cargo plans to add 3 new routes in Cuba and expand cargo transport on Caribbean routes departing from Toronto and Montreal.
• Toronto–Varadero daily

        ▲Toronto–Santa Clara 4x/week

        ▲Toronto–Holguín 3x/week.

• SF Airlines (O3) launches EHU (Asahikawa) – JFK – YHZ (Halifax, Canada) – EHU 5th freedom cargo route since May 25.
• T'way Airlines (TW) to operate CJU – SIN passenger route 5x/week from August 15, daily from September 1 to October 25 (B737-8).

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